Elaine Garzarelli makes a call
CNBC's Steve Liesman reported today that he got an e-mail from financial analyst Elaine Garzarelli this morning saying "The bear market is over." Liesman said Garzarelli sees stocks going 40 percent higher from here.
Ah, that does bring back memories.
Not just memories of stocks being 40 percent higher, but of watching "Wall Street Week" with Louis Rukeyser and seeing Elaine Garzarelli interviewed after she correctly foresaw in 1987 that the market was overvalued, selling about half of the stocks in her fund one week before "Black Monday."
Nobody can really predict the market, even though in hindsight there are always clear indicators of what was about to happen. At the time you're looking forward, there are always clear indicators pointing in both directions.
Still, Elaine Garzarelli is always interesting and it's nice to hear somebody say the bear market is over. It sure beats turning on the business news and watching analysts turn green and retch on-camera.
So the question for small investors is this: What do we do now?
Come out from under the bed, where the cash in your mattress is losing value every day, and think about a cautious strategy of tip-toeing into the market with dollar-cost averaging. Read more about it in this excerpt from "How to Make Money and Lose Weight: A simple guide for everyone."
posted by Babe Lincoln @ 11:22 AM
2 Comments:
Did Elaine Garzarelli tell Steve Leisman what her indicator levels were and when they changed? After all, the market is already up 30%+ from its lows. S&P500 ChartsThanks for the report
I tried to find the answer to your question, Kirk, and what I found instead was that Elaine Garzarelli had posted an edited and rewritten version of my own post on her web site, Garzarelli.com. She (or her staff) added this sentence to the end of the first paragraph: "She moved the Dow over 200 points with her report released after the close on Friday."
I didn't say that.
Then she removed this paragraph:
"Nobody can really predict the market, even though in hindsight there are always clear indicators of what was about to happen. At the time you're looking forward, there are always clear indicators pointing in both directions."
She ended her version of my post with, "So the question for small investors is this: What do we do now?"
The following paragraph was deleted entirely:
"Come out from under the bed, where the cash in your mattress is losing value every day, and think about a cautious strategy of tip-toeing into the market with dollar-cost averaging. Read more about it in this excerpt from 'How to Make Money and Lose Weight: A simple guide for everyone.'"
This exercise in copyright violation just illustrates what I've been saying all along: that no one can predict the market, and everyone who charges for investment advice or claims some special skill of financial prognostication is a fraud to one degree or another. They're not all Bernie Madoff. But if Elaine Garzarelli is so desperate for good press that she's rewriting blog posts and featuring them on her web site, well, draw your own conclusions.
Now, here's some free advice for everybody reading this post: Dollar-cost average into index funds and don't sell for at least five years.
I'd tell you to buy my book, but I'm charging $9.95 for it and I don't want to plug it while I'm trying to make the point that you shouldn't pay anyone for financial advice.Get it at the library!
(Click here to see a screen shot of the page on Elaine Garzarelli's web site that showcases my blog post in its re-written form. I've posted the screen shot on the assumption that Ms. Garzarelli will remove the page the moment she reads this, in which case the link will stop working.)
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