Change is coming again

"Follow the money," Watergate source Deep Throat told Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein in the movie, "All the President's Men."

It's still good advice.

On Friday, the Washington Post reported that "Democratic political committees have seen a decline in their fundraising fortunes this year."

That's odd, isn't it?

Democrats control the House and the Senate and the White House. They chair all the committees, appoint all the regulators, and write all the laws and rules that cause billions of dollars to shift this way or that way on the turn of a phrase.

Wouldn't you think they'd be raking in the campaign contributions from people and businesses with a lot to gain or lose?

Well, they're not.

There's "complacency among their rank-and-file donors," the Post reports, and also "a de facto boycott by many of their wealthiest givers, who have been put off by the party's harsh rhetoric about big business."

That analysis may be a bit too mild.

Rank-and-file Democratic donors worked furiously during the campaign to elect a Democratic president and a Democratic House and Senate with unstoppable majorities. They were energized, as we recall, by the prospect of an early end to the war in Iraq and by the promise of a health care reform bill that would give everybody everything for free.

So far, they're 0 and 2.

They may not be complacent as much as they're enraged.

And while there's no reason to doubt that the "wealthiest givers" dislike the Democrats' rhetorical attacks on a different business every week, self-interest would dictate that the donors would continue to donate, just to make sure the attacks stay rhetorical.

Even if the "wealthiest givers" didn't want the Democrats to be re-elected, they could be expected to donate out of fear that they would be re-elected.

So if they're not donating, it may mean they have judged that the Democrats -- despite their control of Congress and the White House -- are irrelevant.

Can that be right?

Let's get the crystal ball and gaze deeply into the polls.

On September 17, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press reported that support for President Obama has slipped noticeably among independents: "About six-in-ten independents now say Obama is able to get things done (57%), down from 71% in February; 34% say he is not able to get things done, up from just 12% then. There also have been substantial increases in the proportions of independents who say Obama is not a strong leader (from 12% to 29%) and not trustworthy (from 15% to 31%)."

In addition, the percentage of independents who say Obama "cares about people like them" dropped from 80% in February to 71% in September, while 47% of independents now say Obama is "liberal," up from 37% in February.

The importance of these small changes is magnified by the fact that independents are the critical swing voters, the difference between victory and defeat in every close election.

The overall poll numbers are falling, too. CBS News reported Thursday that President Obama's approval rating stands at 56 percent, although on specific issues "Americans are less enthusiastic about his performance." His approval ratings for his handling of the economy, health care, and Afghanistan are 50%, 47% and 44%, respectively.

Today's Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll, which queries likely voters instead of all adults, has President Obama's approval rating at 48% and his disapproval rating at 51%.

And he hasn't even tackled immigration reform yet.

So maybe it's not surprising that the Democrats are having trouble raising money. It doesn't matter that they won the last election. Their own supporters believe they've lost the next one.


Copyright 2009


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