Once upon a time at the Lebanese border

Well, nobody wanted Israel to do it, and now nobody wants to do it. Nobody wants to take on Hezbollah and its state sponsors, Iran and Syria. Nobody wants the job of taking rockets and rifles away from terrorists who are sworn to the destruction of Israel.

The U.N. says the European Union nations have committed to send 6,900 troops, about half of the 15,000 international troops the U.N. is hoping to deploy as a peacekeeping (but not disarming) force on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Israel says it does not want troops on its border from countries that do not recognize Israel's right to exist, which would knock out the predominantly Muslim nations of Indonesia, Bangladesh and Malaysia, all of which have volunteered to participate. Israel has diplomatic relations with Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, but those nations have not volunteered any troops.

The U.S. and Britain are not planning to send troops on the theory that Anglo-Saxons with guns just make terrorists mad.

It's going very well, I think. Don't you think so? Good, consensus is so reassuring.

Let's examine the possible outcomes of this exercise in fairy tale diplomacy and see if we can find one that isn't a catastrophe.

Possibility number one: The government of Lebanon, which includes members of Hezbollah in the Cabinet, sends 15,000 troops to the border with Israel where they are joined by international troops. Together they stand in the heat and watch as Hezbollah is resupplied by Iran and Syria and prepares for its next attack on Israel.

Or, two: The Lebanese-international peacekeeping force tries to stop Iran and Syria from resupplying Hezbollah. The troops use force, engage Hezbollah fighters, and arrest Hezbollah fighters. Hezbollah grabs hostages from each of the countries involved and threatens to cut their heads off on live television unless their fighters are released. Public opinion in each democratic country participating in the international force moves sharply in the direction of letting Israel drop into the sea. Peace marchers take to the streets in every European capital to demand that the troops come home.

Or, three: Israel refuses to drop into the sea and demands that the international force get out of the way of an attack on Hezbollah strongholds and infrastructure. After a mind-numbing U.N. debate that lasts three weeks, the nations filling out the international force make a completely coincidental simultaneous decision to bring their troops home. Israel attacks Hezbollah and is criticized internationally from the safety of foreign capitals.

Or, four: Hezbollah gets tired of waiting for Israel to drop into the sea and fires rockets over the heads of the international peacekeeping force into northern Israel, perhaps as far as Tel Aviv. The international community urges the Israelis to show restraint. The United States supplies Israel with weapons and intelligence (such as it is) and looks away while Israel launches air attacks on targets well north of the peacekeepers' position.

Or, five: Hezbollah attacks the peacekeeping troops or civilian targets in the countries that sent them. Refer to possibility number three.

Or, six: Previously unknown Palestinian terror groups, perhaps with the help of infiltrators in the peacekeeping force, launch attacks on the peacekeeping troops or civilian targets in the nations that sent them. Refer to possibility number three.

Or, seven: Iran announces that it has a nuclear weapon. The second Cold War begins.

Or, eight: Iran announces that it has a nuclear weapon and intends to use it against Israel. The peacekeeping forces are withdrawn from Lebanon. The third World War begins.

Hmmm. That didn't go very well after all.

As long as we're indulging our imaginations, let's see if we can imagine a Middle East policy that would work better than the one we have now.

How about this: The United States, Britain and the European Union organize an economic advisory panel made up of oil companies and financial institutions. The U.S. puts the State Department's public diplomacy department to work on a campaign to tell the people of Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the dysfunctional oil states the precise dollar amount of cash income that they each would be receiving from their country's oil business as shareholders, if only their governments would privatize the state-owned oil reserves. The advisory panel creates a blueprint for privatization that keeps the ownership of the oil business in the hands of the people of each country and makes it plain that it's not a U.S. takeover of their oil or their country. The State Department reassures the dictators and thugs in each oil state that they will all remain rich as part-owners of a booming private industry, with the bonus of having a population that no longer lives in the desperate, hopeless condition that breeds terrorists like mosquitoes.

Privatization in the Middle East quickly creates private wealth, which is invested and spent to pay salaries and support businesses, which creates more private wealth for more people.

People with private wealth demand protection from the radical fanatics who want to take the world back to the Middle Ages. No longer forced by economic conditions to stay on the good side of whoever is in power, they no longer offer protection to the radical fanatics who want to take the world back to the Middle Ages.

Gradually it transpires that religious and tribal differences, though permanent and nasty, are not enough to persuade people to blow themselves up just when the third-quarter dividend is about to be paid.

Gradually the people with private wealth become numerous enough to force the dictators and thugs to choose between reforming into a real government or taking their Swiss bank accounts and going away to an island somewhere.

And they all lived happily ever after.

If we're going to believe in fairy tales, we should at least pick one that doesn't end with Hansel and Gretel in the oven.


Copyright 2006

Editor's Note: You might be interested to read The God of the Machine, the 1943 book by Isabel Paterson that explains why some societies are death cults while others are engines of economic growth. Click here to find a copy. You might also want to read "A Plan to Get Out of Iraq: Blackstone's Fundamental Rights and the Power of Property," an essay that can be found at www.SusanShelley.com.

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